Another indicator to collapse Lehman level — don’t run Sohu Finance-www.ddd13.com

Another crash index came to Lehman’s collapse – not to run? Sohu finance has another sign that the financial market crisis is imminent. In the past 2 months, the New York New York Stock Exchange has shorted 4.5 of its total position to 18 billion shares, close to a record high in July 2008. But investors do not rush to a conclusion, the data from the historical point of view, representing two distinct market outlook suggests that one of the 1 possibility is that the central bank or other large buying triggers, which bear power was completely recovered, the S & P 500 index to new high. Or short power reached the July 2008 financial crisis, at the same time, the history of a major financial crisis once again, the market all the kongfangliliang get high profit, then another great depression style collapse in the corner. Investors don’t have to be impatient. For weeks or months, the market is about to give the answer, but the last time it happens, investors know how bad the situation can turn out to be. Figure 2 credit market implied that U.S. stocks will drop by 40%, the recent warning for the continued collapse of U.S. stocks. In 2015 December, high yield bonds were sold heavily, and in a few weeks, the high yield bond market was swept by the wind. The weakness of the credit market has severely depressed the current trading profits, and the banking sector is also facing a severe test, because many banks bear underwriting obligations and the value of their loans is included in the book value of the bank. More importantly, volatility can lead to so-called " hanging " leveraged loans. Since October last year, it has become harder to sell leveraged loans in the banking sector. British Financial Times issued a note last November to remind investors " hang " leveraged loans increased risk. In December, the risk was further increased. As early as the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) policy of the Federal Reserve (FED), leveraged loan markets and American high interest corporate debt yields have stalled, and then the market has entered a decline for more than a year. The U.S. stock market seems to be slowing down one step at a time. Zerohedge, the famous American financial media website, believes that " is always the right end of the credit market, and the target price of the S & P 500 index points to 1100. " 3 indeed, high yield bonds and leveraged lending prices are at their lowest levels since 2009, as if QE3’s liquidity " water gun " after stopping watering the capital market, the credit and stock market rhythms moved downward. The market bottomed out, the signal has not yet appeared, Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex, said: "" there are three reliable signs before the bottom of the market, and these signals are so bad that they can safely intervene in the market.". ";

又一个崩盘指标来到雷曼倒闭时水平――还不赶快跑?-搜狐财经  又一个金融市场危机即将爆发的信号浮出水面。   过去2个月内,纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)做空总头寸提升4.5个百分点,达到180亿股,接近2008年7月时创下的纪录新高。   不过投资者先勿急于下结论,数据从历史上看,代表了两种截然不同的后市提示: 图1   可能性之一是,有央行或者其他超大买盘触发因素,使空头力量完全被回补,将标普500指数送上新高。   或者做空力量达到2008年7月金融危机时水平,同时历史上重大金融危机再次重演,市场所有的空方力量被获取高额盈利,那么另一次大萧条式的大崩盘已在拐角。   投资者也不用心急,数周或者数月后,市场即将给出答案,不过最近一次类似情况发生,投资者很清楚情形会演变成多糟。 图2   信贷市场暗示美股将跌四成   近期针对美股持续崩盘的警告不绝于耳。2015年12月份,高收益债券遭大肆抛售,短短几个星期内高收益债券市场被狂风席卷。信贷市场疲软的势态严重打压了现阶段的交易利润,而银行业也面临十分严峻的考验,因许多银行承担债务承销并且其贷款的价值包括在银行的账面价值内。   尤为重要的是,剧烈波动可能会导致所谓的"悬挂式"杠杆贷款。   自去年10月开始,银行业出售杠杆贷款的难度便逐渐增大。英国《金融时报》曾在去年11月发文提醒投资者"悬挂式"杠杆贷款的风险加大。12月该风险进一步加大。   早在美联储(FED)第三轮量化宽松政策(QE3)实施期间,杠杆贷款市场和美国高息企业债收益率就已止步不前,随后市场进入了一年多的跌势。   美国股市似乎总是慢其一步见顶。美国知名博客类财经传媒Zerohedge网站观点认为,"信贷市场到最后总是正确的,而标普500股指的目标价位因此指向了1100点。" 图3   的确,高收益债券和杠杆贷款价格处在2009年以来的最低水平,似乎QE3的流动性"水枪"停止浇灌资金市后,信贷和股票市场节奏都向下移动的重心。   市场见底信号尚未出现   美国投资公司Convergex首席市场策略师Nicholas Colas表示:"市场底部出现之前有三个可靠迹象,这些信号着实糟糕,以至于可以安全地介入市场。"   他补充说:"首先,标普500指数上没有出现单日5%以上的跌幅,其次,波动率指数VIX还没有超过40,第三,所有股票一齐遭遇杀跌的情况也没有出现。所以我们做的只能是继续等待。"   VIX指数受到交易员的广泛关注,专业人士通过该指数判断市场的恐慌程度。   有趣的是,虽然VIX指数在过去3个月中走高,但尚未触及提示投资者可以"安全买入"的区域。该指数在去年8月升至40,在2008年一度达到90,但当前只是刚刚越过30。   长期VIX指数交易员Brian Stutland上周表示,他正在寻找VIX指数出现恐慌迹象,"届时投资者会疯狂购入安全资产以避险,这是在我买入之前必须看到的现象。"相关的主题文章: